Tuesday, April 22, 2008

Clinton Wins Pennsylvania!

It's been called by multiple sources. CNN, The New York Times, and Reuters.

Woo hoo!

See, here's the thing. People keep saying she's going to drop out any day now. They say it's coming; she hasn't got a prayer.


She's behind by less than 130 delegates. Know what that is? NOTHING. Pennsylvania alone has 188. And there are more primaries to go. Seven states, Puerto Rico and Guam still remain. That's 501 more delegates. And if you add in PA it's 689 (since we don't know exactly how the delegates will be divided yet). Say they split the remaining races exactly down the middle. If you take their current delegate standings (Clinton 1541 and Obama 1679) and added half (344) to either of them, it's still a razor thin margin. If that were the case, Obama would have 2023 and Clinton would have 1885.

Obama would be ahead, but that's still 2 delegates shy of sealing the deal*.

Basically, what I'm saying is, at this point it would be beyond stupid for her to drop out of the race. Especially with tonight's Pennsylvania victory, the margin between them is so tight there's no telling who's going to come out the winner.

We aren't going to know for sure until August, people (person?). We may have an idea when all the primaries are over in June, but I'm not taking anything to heart until the actual convention and official nomination.

*I realize I am not addressing any remaining superdelegates with this. But my point would stay the same. It's still too close to know, and it would be insane to drop out at this point. No superdelegates were harmed in the making of this post.

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